Neodecortech S p A : FY 2023_WebSim

	Milan, 13 March 2024
	Italian Equity Research - FY23 Results
NEODECORTECH	BUY
Sector: Industrials	Price: Eu3.03 - Target: Eu4.50

2023: Resilienza in un mercato sfidante

Chiara Tavazzi +39-02-77115.451

[e-mail]

Stock Rating

Rating:			Unchanged
Target Price (Eu):		from 4.16 to 4.50
	2024E	2025E	2026E
Chg in Adj EPS	0.0%	0.0%

Next Event

1Q24 Results Out 9 May

NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance

3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
m-23	m-23	l-2 3	s-23	n-2 3	g-2 4
		NE ODECO RTE CH
		NEODECO RTECH Rel. to F TSE Al l Shares (Reb. )
Stock Data
Reuters code:				NDT.MI
Bloomberg code:			NDT IM
Performance	1M	3M	12M
Absolute		-3.5%	9.4%	-16.5%
Relative		-10.4%	-1.7%	-38.3%
12M (H/L)				3.59/2.72
3M Average Volume (th):		7.78
Shareholder Data
No. of Ord shares (mn):			14
Total no. of shares (mn):			14
Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn):			43
Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn):			43
Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn):			18
Mkt Float (in %):			41.4%
Main Shareholder:
Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A		58.6%
Balance Sheet Data
Book Value (Eu mn):			81
BVPS (Eu):				5.70
P/BV:					0.5
Net Financial Position (Eu mn):		-26
Enterprise Value (Eu mn):		69

Risultati FY23 in linea con le attese. I ricavi FY23 sono stati pari a 161,6 milioni di euro (-17.7% YoY), il confronto su base annua resta penalizzante a causa di un 1H22 che ha registrato volumi record. Su base trimestrale il fatturato risulta sostanzialmente in linea con il trimestre precedente, escludendo la divisione energia. I fermi produttivi della centrale elettrica (87 giorni in totale) hanno determinato una perdita di fatturato di circa 10 milioni di euro nell'anno. L'EBITDA

• stato pari a 13,9 milioni di euro (-13.1% YoY), con una sostanziale tenuta dei margini, pari all'8,6% (vs 8,1% FY22). L'utile netto si attesta a Eu2,8mn, ed evidenzia un calo significativo rispetto agli 8,4 milioni di euro del FY22; è necessario però precisare che quest'ultimo incorporava gli effetti positivi della posta straordinaria MICA per 3,8 milioni di euro.

Dettaglio dei ricavi Q4 per business unit. Per quanto concerne le due divisioni attinenti al core business della società, nonostante la flessione dei ricavi su base annua, legata da un lato ad un rallentamento generale della domanda e dall'altro ad una riduzione dei prezzi unitari di circa il 5-7%, il confronto trimestrale sembra essere leggermente migliore. Nel Q4 società ha registrato rispettivamente Eu17.7mn di ricavi per quanto riguarda la Carta Decorativa Stampata (+8.6% YoY, + 12.5% QoQ), ed Eu14.5mn per la carta Decorativa (-7.6% YoY, +12.5% QoQ). La divisione Energia ha registrato ricavi per circa Eu4.3mn (-68%YoY,-57%QoQ), importante flessione legata al fermo dell'impianto energetico a causa del blocco anticipato della procedura di massimizzazione da parte delle autorità competenti.

• necessario precisare che l'impianto energetico è tornato in funzione a pieno regime dall'11 dicembre 2023, in seguito alla pubblicazione del Decreto Energia, dopo un periodo di stop protrattosi da ottobre 2023.

Forte miglioramento della PFN. L'indebitamento netto si attesta ora a Eu25.9mn (rispetto ai Eu30.7mn del FY22 e ai Eu36mn 9M23), con investimenti per Eu6,5mn. Questo importante miglioramento è dovuto all'incasso da parte della società degli incentivi governativi spettanti per la divisione energetica, che hanno più che controbilanciato gli investimenti relativi a nuovi impianti e macchinari, tra cui la nuova linea di impregnazione entrata in funzione ad inizio 2024, oltre che al miglioramento ed efficientamento degli impianti e macchinari esistenti.

BUY confermato, nuovo target price Eu4,50 (da Eu4,16). I risultati comunicati sono sostanzialmente in linea con le nostre attese, ed evidenziano come, in un contesto macroeconomico internazionale e nazionale sfidante, la società sia riuscita a mantenere la propria marginalità. Alla luce di questi ultimi confermiamo la nostra visione positiva sul titolo basata sull'attesa di una completa ripresa del portafoglio ordini, un miglioramento della marginalità e di una forte generazione di cassa. Il nostro nuovo target, basato su valutazione dcf, riflette il decremento del risk-freerate.

Key Figures & Ratios	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Sales (Eu mn)	176	196	162	178	184
EBITDA Adj (Eu mn)	18	16	14	18	21
Net Profit Adj (Eu mn)	7	6	3	6	7
EPS New Adj (Eu)	0.492	0.408	0.200	0.391	0.504
EPS Old Adj (Eu)	0.492	0.408	0.200	0.391	0.504
DPS (Eu)	0.089	0.139	0.145	0.155	0.165
EV/EBITDA Adj	4.6	5.1	5.1	3.7	3.1
EV/EBIT Adj	9.0	13.4	15.4	7.3	5.5
P/E Adj	6.2	7.4	15.1	7.8	6.0
Div. Yield	2.9%	4.6%	4.8%	5.1%	5.4%
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.4	1.0

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NEODECORTECH - Key Figures

Profit & Loss (Eu mn)	2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Sales	128	176	196	162	178	184
EBITDA	15	18	16	14	18	21
EBIT	5	9	6	5	9	12
Financial Income (charges)	-1	-1	3	-2	-2	-2
Associates & Others	0	0	0	0	0	0
Pre-tax Profit	4	8	9	3	7	9
Taxes	-1	-1	-1	0	-2	-2
Tax rate	13.0%	16.6%	8.7%	-9.2%	22.0%	22.0%
Minorities & Discontinued Operations	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Profit	4	7	8	3	6	7
EBITDA Adj	15	18	16	14	18	21
EBIT Adj	5	9	6	5	9	12
Net Profit Adj	4	7	6	3	6	7

Per Share Data (Eu)	2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average	14	14	14	14	14	14
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End	14	14	14	14	14	14
EPS f.d	0.262	0.492	0.593	0.200	0.391	0.504
EPS Adj f.d	0.262	0.492	0.408	0.200	0.391	0.504
BVPS f.d	4.562	5.181	5.435	5.448	5.698	6.061
Dividend per Share ORD	0.139	0.089	0.139	0.145	0.155	0.165
Dividend per Share SAV	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Dividend Payout Ratio (%)	53.2%	18.0%	23.4%	72.4%	39.7%	32.8%
Cash Flow (Eu mn)	2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Gross Cash Flow	13	15	18	12	14	16
Change in NWC	-2	3	-9	2	-4	-0
Capital Expenditure	-6	-10	-9	-6	-9	-9
Other Cash Items	0	0	0	0	0	0
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	4	8	-0	8	1	6
Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items	-2	4	1	0	0	0
Dividends	-2	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2
Equity Financing/Buy-back	0	0	0	0	0	0
Change in Net Financial Position	1	11	-1	5	0	5

Balance Sheet (Eu mn)	2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Total Fixed Assets	81	82	81	78	78	79
Net Working Capital	28	26	35	33	24	25
Long term Liabilities	-8	-8	-8	-7	4	3
Net Capital Employed	102	100	108	103	107	107
Net Cash (Debt)	-40	-29	-31	-26	-26	-21
Group Equity	62	70	77	77	81	86
Minorities	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Equity	62	70	77	77	81	86

Enterprise Value (Eu mn)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Average Mkt Cap		38	53	51	45	43	43
Adjustments (Associate & Minorities)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Cash (Debt)		-40	-29	-31	-26	-26	-21
Enterprise Value		78	83	82	71	69	64
Ratios (%)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
EBITDA Adj Margin		11.4%	10.3%	8.1%	8.6%	10.3%	11.1%
EBIT Adj Margin		4.3%	5.2%	3.1%	2.9%	5.3%	6.2%
Gearing - Debt/Equity		64.7%	41.6%	39.8%	33.4%	31.7%	23.9%
Interest Cover on EBIT		3.9	7.6	nm	2.3	4.0	4.9
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj		2.7	1.6	1.9	1.9	1.4	1.0
ROACE*		5.4%	9.2%	5.9%	4.4%	9.0%	10.8%
ROE*		5.8%	10.1%	7.9%	3.7%	7.0%	8.6%
EV/CE		0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.6
EV/Sales		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3
EV/EBITDA Adj		5.4	4.6	5.1	5.1	3.7	3.1
EV/EBIT Adj		14.3	9.0	13.4	15.4	7.3	5.5
Free Cash Flow Yield		9.6%	19.0%	-1.1%	18.1%	2.7%	14.2%
Growth Rates (%)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023A	2024E	2025E
Sales		-3.9%	38.0%	11.4%	-17.7%	10.2%	3.5%
EBITDA Adj		-8.4%	24.1%	-11.9%	-13.1%	32.1%	11.8%
EBIT Adj		-23.0%	68.1%	-33.8%	-24.0%	103.7%	21.8%
Net Profit Adj		-38.0%	89.2%	-13.3%	-50.9%	95.0%	28.9%
EPS Adj		-39.9%	88.0%	-17.0%	-50.9%	95.0%	28.9%
DPS		-8.8%	-36.3%	56.9%	4.2%	6.9%	6.5%
*Excluding extraordinary items	Source: Intermonte SIM estimates
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DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION

Stock NAME	NEODECORTECH
Current Recomm:	BUY	Previous Recomm:	BUY
Current Target (Eu):	4.50	Previous Target (Eu):	4.16
Current Price (Eu):	3.03	Previous Price (Eu):	2.80
Date of report:	13/03/2024	Date of last report:	09/11/2023

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