Neodecortech S p A : H1 2023_WebSim

	Milan, 11 September 2023
	Italian Equity Research - 2Q23 Results
NEODECORTECH	BUY
Sector: Industrials	Price: Eu3.09 - Target: Eu4.80

Risultati 2Q in linea con le stime con forte recupero dei margini

I

Chiara Tavazzi +39-02-77115.451

[e-mail]

Stock Rating

Rating:			Unchanged
Target Price (Eu):			Unchanged
	2023E	2024E	2025E
Chg in Adj EPS	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance

3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
s-22	n-2 2	g-2 3	m-23	m-23	l-2 3	s-23

NE ODECO RTE CH

NEODECO RTECH Rel. to F TSE Al l Shares (Reb. )

Risultati in linea con le attese, ottimo recupero della redditività nel 2Q23. Come

da attese i risultati, seppur in calo rispetto all'eccezionale 2022, hanno evidenziato un recupero della redditività, che conferma la nostra visione ottimista per il secondo semestre e per i prossimi anni. Neodecortech ha beneficiato e continuerà a beneficiare di una strategia basata sulla ricerca e l'innovazione costante dei prodotti. Ci attendiamo un newsflow in ulteriore miglioramento e confermiamo quindi la nostra visione positiva sul titolo, con il processo di consolidamento in atto nel settore che rappresenta un ulteriore catalyst.

Fatturato 2Q in linea con l'1Q escludendo effetti straordinari. I ricavi 1H23 sono stati pari a 86,4 milioni di euro (-12,9%YoY), il confronto su base annua resta penalizzante a causa di uno straordinario 1H22. Il risultato è stato negativamente impattato dalla chiusura della centrale elettrica per 45 giorni. Analizzando i dati trimestrali il 2Q ha registrato un andamento stabile rispetto al primo trimestre per il core business della società, escludendo il ramo energia.

Redditività in miglioramento su base trimestrale. L'EBITDA 1H23 è stato pari a 9,2 milioni di euro (-15%YoY), in linea con le nostre attese. L'EBITDA nel secondo trimestre è stato pari a 5,5 milioni di euro, evidenziando un forte miglioramento su base trimestrale, con un margine EBITDA che passa dall'8% al 13.8% del 2Q (10,7% a livello semestrale). La società ha evidenziato un recupero dei margini, che ci aspettiamo possano essere confermati per il secondo semestre. L'utile netto a livello semestrale è diminuito da 8,1 milioni di euro (5,6mn adj.) a 3,6 milioni di euro. Su base trimestrale è raddoppiato, passando da 1,2 milioni di euro a 2,4 milioni di euro. La pfn è stata di 32,1 milioni di euro (+1,4 milioni di euro rispetto all'1Q), resta in miglioramento rispetto ai 34,3 milioni di giugno 2022.

						Stime e Prospettive future. Alla luce dei risultati del primo semestre 2023 e di un
Stock Data
						portafoglio ordini in linea con l'andamento storico, confermiamo le nostre stime per
Reuters code:			NDT.MI
				il resto dell'anno. Ci attendiamo una decisa riduzione della posizione finanziaria
Bloomberg code:			NDT IM
				netta, che dovrebbe raggiungere i 27 milioni di euro, a seguito dell'incasso della
Performance	1M	3M	12M
		massimizzazione governativa che dovrebbe avvenire nei prossimi mesi. È atteso
Absolute	-4.0%	10.4%	-8.0%			inoltre un mantenimento della redditività per tutto l'anno.
Relative	-4.9%	7.6%	-35.9%			BUY confermato, target price di Eu4,80 confermato. I risultati su base trimestrale
12M (H/L)			3.80/2.72
				hanno evidenziato un miglioramento dei margini nel 2Q, che ci aspettiamo venga
3M Average Volume (th):		13.25
			confermato per il resto dell'anno. Gli attuali prezzi rappresentano un'opportunità
						di investimento in vista di un progressivo ritorno alla crescita atteso per i prossimi
Shareholder Data
						anni e alla forte generazione di cassa. Il titolo è fortemente sottovalutato e
No. of Ord shares (mn):		14
			confermiamo la nostra raccomandazione positiva anche alla luce della elevata
Total no. of shares (mn):		14
			visibilità sulle prospettive future.
Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn):		44
Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn):		44
			Key Figures & Ratios	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn):		18
			Sales (Eu mn)	176	196	176	184	189
Mkt Float (in %):			41.4%
				EBITDA Adj (Eu mn)	18	16	18	20	21
Main Shareholder:
					Net Profit Adj (Eu mn)	7	6	6	7	8
Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A		58.6%
			EPS New Adj (Eu)	0.492	0.408	0.403	0.511	0.576
						EPS Old Adj (Eu)	0.492	0.408	0.403	0.511	0.576
Balance Sheet Data
					DPS (Eu)	0.089	0.139	0.145	0.155	0.165
Book Value (Eu mn):			81
				EV/EBITDA Adj	4.6	5.1	3.9	3.3	2.9
BVPS (Eu):			5.70
				EV/EBIT Adj	9.0	13.4	8.5	6.2	5.2
P/BV:			0.5			P/E Adj	6.3	7.6	7.7	6.0	5.4
Net Financial Position (Eu mn):		-27			Div. Yield	2.9%	4.5%	4.7%	5.0%	5.3%
Enterprise Value (Eu mn):		71			Net Debt/EBITDA Adj	1.6	1.9	1.5	1.1	0.8

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NEODECORTECH - Key Figures

Profit & Loss (Eu mn)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Sales		128	176	196	176	184	189
EBITDA		15	18	16	18	20	21
EBIT		5	9	6	8	11	12
Financial Income (charges)		-1	-1	3	-2	-2	-1
Associates & Others		0	0	0	0	0	0
Pre-tax Profit		4	8	9	7	9	11
Taxes		-1	-1	-1	-1	-2	-2
Tax rate		13.0%	16.6%	8.7%	17.0%	22.0%	22.0%
Minorities & Discontinued Operations	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Profit		4	7	8	6	7	8
EBITDA Adj		15	18	16	18	20	21
EBIT Adj		5	9	6	8	11	12
Net Profit Adj		4	7	6	6	7	8
Per Share Data (Eu)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average	14	14	14	14	14	14
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End	14	14	14	14	14	14
EPS f.d		0.262	0.492	0.593	0.403	0.511	0.576
EPS Adj f.d		0.262	0.492	0.408	0.403	0.511	0.576
BVPS f.d		4.562	5.181	5.435	5.697	6.068	6.503
Dividend per Share ORD		0.139	0.089	0.139	0.145	0.155	0.165
Dividend per Share SAV		0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Dividend Payout Ratio (%)		53.2%	18.0%	23.4%	36.0%	30.3%	28.6%
Cash Flow (Eu mn)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Gross Cash Flow		13	15	18	15	17	18
Change in NWC		-2	3	-9	-1	-2	-1
Capital Expenditure		-6	-10	-9	-9	-9	-9
Other Cash Items		0	0	0	0	0	0
Free Cash Flow (FCF)		4	8	-0	5	5	7
Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items	-2	4	1	1	1	1
Dividends		-2	-1	-2	-2	-2	-2
Equity Financing/Buy-back		0	0	0	0	0	0
Change in Net Financial Position	1	11	-1	4	4	6
Balance Sheet (Eu mn)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Total Fixed Assets		81	82	81	80	80	79
Net Working Capital		28	26	35	36	39	40
Long term Liabilities		-8	-8	-8	-8	-9	-10
Net Capital Employed		102	100	108	108	109	109
Net Cash (Debt)		-40	-29	-31	-27	-23	-17
Group Equity		62	70	77	81	86	92
Minorities		0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Equity		62	70	77	81	86	92
Enterprise Value (Eu mn)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Average Mkt Cap		38	53	51	44	44	44
Adjustments (Associate & Minorities)	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Cash (Debt)		-40	-29	-31	-27	-23	-17
Enterprise Value		78	83	82	71	67	61
Ratios (%)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
EBITDA Adj Margin		11.4%	10.3%	8.1%	10.3%	11.2%	11.3%
EBIT Adj Margin		4.3%	5.2%	3.1%	4.8%	5.9%	6.2%
Gearing - Debt/Equity		64.7%	41.6%	39.8%	33.4%	26.6%	18.3%
Interest Cover on EBIT		3.9	7.6	nm	5.6	7.2	9.8
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj		2.7	1.6	1.9	1.5	1.1	0.8
ROACE*		5.4%	9.2%	5.9%	7.8%	10.0%	10.7%
ROE*		5.8%	10.1%	7.9%	7.2%	8.7%	9.2%
EV/CE		0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.6
EV/Sales		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3
EV/EBITDA Adj		5.4	4.6	5.1	3.9	3.3	2.9
EV/EBIT Adj		14.3	9.0	13.4	8.5	6.2	5.2
Free Cash Flow Yield		9.4%	18.6%	-1.0%	10.6%	11.7%	16.0%
Growth Rates (%)		2020A	2021A	2022A	2023E	2024E	2025E
Sales		-3.9%	38.0%	11.4%	-10.5%	4.4%	2.8%
EBITDA Adj		-8.4%	24.1%	-11.9%	13.4%	12.9%	4.0%
EBIT Adj		-23.0%	68.1%	-33.8%	37.6%	28.9%	8.2%
Net Profit Adj		-10.7%	89.2%	26.1%	-32.1%	27.0%	12.7%
EPS Adj		-39.9%	88.0%	-17.0%	-1.3%	27.0%	12.7%
DPS		-8.8%	-36.3%	56.9%	4.2%	6.9%	6.5%
*Excluding extraordinary items	Source: Intermonte SIM estimates
							2

Neodecortech - Main economics figures of the group

(Eu mn)	1Q22 A	2Q22 A	1H22 A	1Q23 A	2Q23 A	1H23 A
Net revenues	49.2	50.0	99.2	46.5	39.9	86.3
YoY growth	24.3%	16.7%	-11.4%	-5.6%	-20.1%	-12.9%
Others	1.2	2.3	3.5	2.9	3.9	6.8
∆ finished goods	3.3	3.1	6.4	1.5	3.0	4.5
Value of production	53.6	55.4	109.0	50.9	46.8	97.7
EBITDA reported	4.2	6.7	10.9	3.7	5.5	9.2
YoY growth	-17.1%	40.6%	10.7%	-12.0%	-17.6%	-15.4%
EBITDA margin	8.6%	13.3%	11.0%	8.0%	13.8%	10.7%
D&A	(2.3)	(2.4)	(4.7)	(2.2)	(2.3)	(4.5)
Writedowns/Provision	(0.1)	(0.0)	(0.1)	(0.0)	(0.1)	(0.1)
EBIT reported	1.9	4.2	6.1	1.5	3.1	4.6
EBIT margin	3.8%	8.5%	6.2%	3.2%	7.7%	5.4%
Financial Charges	(1.6)	(0.4)	(2.1)	(0.7)	(0.4)	(1.1)
Financial Income	5.5	(0.1)	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.2
Associates	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Pretax	5.8	3.7	9.5	1.0	2.9	3.9
Taxes	(1.3)	(0.1)	(1.4)	0.2	(0.5)	(0.3)
Net income	4.5	4.7	8.1	1.2	2.4	3.6
YoY growth	154.5%	241.6%	160.4%	-72.8%	-47.3%	-54.8%

Source: Company Data

I risultati 1H23 sono perfettamente in linea con le stime.

I ricavi netti consolidati ammontano a 86,4 milioni di Euro, -12,9% su base annua. Il decremento è riconducibile al rallentamento della domanda, al fermo produttivo di BEG, e alla riduzione dei prezzi unitari di vendita di circa il 5-7%.

L'Ebitda ammonta a 9,2 milioni di Euro, in riduzione del -15,3% rispetto ai 10,9 milioni di Euro al 30 giugno 2022. La marginalità, pari al 10,7% dei ricavi, è in linea a quella del primo semestre 2022 (11% dei ricavi), ma migliore rispetto al 31 dicembre 2022 (8,1% dei ricavi).

L'Ebit è pari a 4,6 milioni di Euro (5,3% dei ricavi) e si confronta con la cifra di 6,1 milioni di Euro (6,2% dei ricavi) registrata al 30 giugno 2022.

L'utile netto ha raggiunto 3,6 milioni di Euro (4,1% dei ricavi), in riduzione rispetto all'utile netto al 30 giugno 2022 pari a 8,1 milioni di Euro (8,2% sui ricavi) al lordo degli effetti non ricorrenti.

L'indebitamento finanziario netto è temporaneamente in aumento rispetto al 31 dicembre 2022 passando da 30,7 a 32,1 milioni di Euro: + 1,4 milioni di Euro, a causa di un mancato incasso relativo alla controllata Bio Energia Guarcino.

Su base trimestrale, La redditività risulta in crescita e L'utile netto trimestrale è raddoppiato rispetto al dato dell'1Q, passando da 1,2 milioni di euro a 2.4 milioni di euro.

DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION

Stock NAME	NEODECORTECH
Current Recomm:	BUY	Previous Recomm:	BUY
Current Target (Eu):	4.80	Previous Target (Eu):	4.80
Current Price (Eu):	3.09	Previous Price (Eu):	2.76
Date of report:	11/09/2023	Date of last report:	18/07/2023

3

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